December 3, 2019
https://vimeo.com/377086991
This woman isan economist.
She’s verywell-educated.
She’scomfortable predicting when the next recession will occur.
This is acoin.
It’s verydumb.
Should you rely on the prediction of the economist or the toss of a coin?
The answerseems obvious, but it isn’t.
From1990-2012, economists correctly forecasted only two of 60 recessions thatoccurred around the world a year in advance.
Flipping acoin probably would have done better.
No one hasthe expertise to consistently predict the direction of the market.
Keep this inmind the next time a super-confident pundit makes a prediction.
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